Paladin Energy Limited margin for safety? Assume coverage at Underweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

Paladin Energy Limited margin for safety? Assume coverage at Underweight

Australia Limited/ J.P.

management to guide conservatively and note pressures from higher diesel Morgan India Private Limited

costs (10-15% of cost base) from Jun/Jul along with deferred TSF capex from Zane Guo

FY26. Our unit cost estimate reflects a marginal reduction in absolute (61-3) 9633-4020

production costs vs 4Q FY26 (i.e. first quarter of full mining) with pressure zane.guo@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

from higher diesel pricing offset by improved grades. We see an opportunity

to include some lower grade stockpiled ore in the feed to reduce material

movements in a high diesel price environment. Paladin is FCF neutral in FY27 Key Changes (FYE Jun)

under our base case (JPMe US$87/lb vs spot US$86/lb). Prev Cur Δ

Adj. net income - 26E ($ mn) 5 (10)-286.1%

• Is the PLS timeline optimistic? We think so. Paladin is working towards final Adj. net income - 27E ($ mn) 100 29 -71.0%

permitting by end-CY27 and a three-year construction schedule. Provincial

permits were granted in Feb-26 with Paladin progressing Federal CNSC Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

licensing. We see potential timeline risk, noting ongoing opposition from the Adj. net income ($ mn)

Metis Nation (appeal launched on 31-Mar). While full Indigenous support is 2025A 2026E 2027E

H1 (5) 1A 13

not a pre-requisite, we note NexGen’s Federal approval took c.2.5-years (with H2 (20) (11) 16

full support). We are also aware of numerous projects globally that have been FY (25) (10) 29

delayed due to Indigenous opposition. We incorporate a 12-month delay and

Style Exposure

20% capex increase in our base case (c.A$0.75/sh NPV impact).

• Where could we be wrong? Langer Heinrich continues to outperform