Aboitiz Power Buy the dip: Strong cash flow, favorable portfolio shift outweighs transitory outage, hydro drag

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aboitiz Power Buy the dip: Strong cash flow, favorable portfolio shift outweighs transitory outage, hydro drag

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

29 June 2026

Aboitiz Power Overweight

AP.PS, AP PM

Buy the dip: Strong cash flow, favorable portfolio shift Price (26 Jun 26):Php40.40

outweighs transitory outage, hydro drag Price Target (Jun-27):Php53.00

We stay OW on AP with a Jun-27 PT of Php53. AP has lagged the PSEi by 8.6% Power

ACover the last 3M, even as 1Q26 posted strong volumes and a clear margin recovery. Jelline Gaza, CFA

We believe investors are wary of the looming El Niño impact on AP’s hydro assets (63-2) 8878-1131

(18% of capacity mix) and forced outage at its Therma Visayas power plant (4% jelline.gaza@jpmchase.com

of capacity, due back online by August). We advocate buying on weakness given Jeanette Yutan

the outage is transitory, and spot power price strength and higher coal utilization (63-2) 8878-1188

next year should more than cushion the El Niño impact. We project a 10% EPS 2Y jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.

CAGR and an attractive 6.4%/7.2% dividend yield potential for 2027E/28E, even

after imputing a 10% pt decline in hydro utilization. We also favor AP’s CF

visibility from its highly contracted baseload portfolio. This should effectively Key Changes (FYE Dec)

fund its strategic growth in renewable energy, which we project to hit 41% of Prev Cur Δ

2028E capacity vs. 29% in the 10Y prior, and its timely energy storage investments DPS - 26E (Php) 2.05 2.28 11.2%

that capitalize on widening day and night-time price gaps. DPS - 27E (Php) 2.55 2.59 1.5%

Adj. net income - 27E (Php mn) 39,159 40,334 3.0%

• Firmer spot power prices offset lower hydro generation amid El Niño.