Aboitiz Power "Defensive growth with expansion upside" (Buy) Abaquita

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aboitiz Power "Defensive growth with expansion upside" (Buy) Abaquita

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

Aboitiz Power Equities

PhilippinesDefensive growth with expansion upside

Electric Utilities

12-month rating Buy

Raising PT to P51/sh and maintaining Buy rating

We incorporate 2025 actuals and lower our 2026–28E EPS 2–9%, as higher interest 12m price target P51.00

expense more than offsets a modest EBITDA uplift from the inclusion of the 797MW Prior : P45.00

CBK Hydro complex and over 500MW of additional RE capacity (mostly contracted

Price (25 May 2026) P43.40

under the Green Energy Auction Program) coming online from late 2027. Rolling

forward to mid-2027, we raise our DCF-based price target to P51.00 (from P45.00), RIC: AP.PS BBG: AP PM

supported by stronger cash flows from new projects, and maintain our Buy rating. We

Trading data and key metrics

believe AP offers resilient cash flows and growth optionality, underpinned by its large

52-wk range P48.00-35.00

contracted capacity base, expanding RE pipeline, and continued pursuit of accretive

M&A. Alongside a 5.4% 2027E dividend yield, we believe AP is likely to remain attractive Market cap. P313b/US$5.09b

in the current low-GDP growth environment. Shares o/s 7,206m (ORD)

Free float 18%

CBK Hydro: Complementary asset to AP's portfolio Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,251

CBK Hydro is a 797MW multi-asset hydropower complex combining conventional Avg. daily value (m) P55.5

hydro, run-of-river, and pumped-storage technologies. While AP intends to ultimately Common s/h equity (12/26E) P218b

contract the asset—potentially via ancillary service agreements or mid-merit PSAs—it is P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

currently operating on a merchant basis following its February 2026 takeover. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 5.2x