Korea Autos, Battery and Nuclear EPC

研报英文原文证据摘录

Korea Autos, Battery and Nuclear EPC

Hyundai Motor Group's robotics business

Estimated value of W20-121bn

(Wbn, units)

Value Note

2030E Sales revenue 5,655

ASP ($/unit) 130,000 ASP by 2030E when Atlas enters initial mass-production

2030E shipment volume 30,000 30,000 units of Atlas humanoid robot

BULL CASE

P/S 30x Based on higher-end of P/S multiple within humanoid peers

Estimated value (2030E) 169,650 Equivalent to $117bn

Estimated value (2027E) 120,754 Using 12% discount rate to bring to its 2027 value; equivalent to $83bn

BEAR CASE

P/S 5x Based on lower-end of P/S multiple within humanoid peers

Estimated value (2030E) 28,275 Equivalent to $20bn

Estimated value (2027E) 20,126 Using 12% discount rate to bring to its 2027 value; equivalent to $14bn

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan

MID-POINT VALUE

Estimated value (2027E) 70,440 Implied P/S of 17x; equivalent to $49bn

BOM cost breakdown: Atlas prototype vs initial mass-production

Prototype (current) Mass production (2030E) Note

% reduction

$ BOM % BOM $ BOM % BOM

vs prototype

Total BOM 300 100% 130 100% ~57%

Main area for imminent standardization & commonization; room for compromise on

Actuators 160 53% 48 37% ~70%

actuator quality

Controller (GPU, CPU) + storage 15 5% 11 8% ~30% Limited downside at chips, due to strong bargaining power of chipmakers

Vision & sensing (camera, encoder, force/tactile

45 15% 32 24% ~30% Vision system already being mass-produced for other sectors (electronics, auto)

sensors)

Power system (battery pack + BMS + swap

20 7% 10 8% ~50% Battery electronics commoditization

mechanism)

Structure & covers (frame, etc.) 30 10% 15 12% ~50%

Cabling (harness, connector) 30 10% 15 12% ~50% More standardization expected by using more harness

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates