J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 22 Jun 26 Greater China Data Watch; Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification; Key Takeaways; Social Scrutiny; SSC-H/A

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 22 Jun 26 Greater China Data Watch; Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification; Key Takeaways; Social Scrutiny; SSC-H/A

Asia Pacific Equity Research

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China/HK First to Market 22 June 2026

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Greater China, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan (Feng Zhu)

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• Next week: China LPR; Hong Kong CPI, trade; Taiwan IP, export orders, labor

Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification, China (Rebecca Wen)

China’s Master Plan and target: CATL the top beneficiary

Despite market concerns over China’s weak consumption (note) and soft passenger vehicle sales (JPMe

FY26 China PV NEV sales -9% y/y vs +6% previously, note), we believe investors underappreciate the

government’s latest push in heavy-duty truck (HDT) electrification. China released a Master Plan and

targets for HDT electrification on 12 June. The government’s 40% EV penetration target implies at least

~130GWh of HDT battery demand (2025E: 93GWh), roughly the size of the US EV market in 2025 and

larger than the US ESS market. We view the government target as a floor, not a ceiling, and expect ~50%

EV penetration in HDT by 2030, implying a >20% CAGR for CV battery demand (vs ~7% for PV demand).

We estimate that China’s CV battery demand will reach ~380GWh by 2030, representing >30% of total

China EV battery demand.