Smartfit "TotalPass Scale and Monetization Support a Favorable 2Q26 Setup..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

Smartfit "TotalPass Scale and Monetization Support a Favorable 2Q26 Setup..."

ng into 2Q26 results. We reiterate our Buy rating & price target of R$28/share. 12/27E 2.02 2.11 4 1.96

12/28E 2.80 2.91 4 2.50

Favorable near-term setup; sensitivity to frequency and pass-through

Vinicius Strano, CFA

We believe 2Q26 sets up favorably for TP, with revenue and margins benefiting from Analyst

both lower gym attendance and reduced partner pass-through payments. Given the vinicius.strano@ubs.com

high sensitivity of TotalPass economics to both member frequency and partner pass- +55-11-2767 6688

through levels, we provide a sensitivity analysis below to illustrate the potential Lucca Biasi

impact on 2Q26 revenue under different operating scenarios. Associate Analyst

lucca.biasi@ubs.com

Gym frequency in Brazil typically stands at 7–8 visits per month during the +55-11-2767 6173

year. In 2Q, we estimate frequency at the low of this range, below yearly

Isabella Lamas average due to seasonality, a dynamic that could be amplified this year by

Associate Analyst

holidays and the world cup. Given TP usage-based cost structure, lower

isabella.lamas@ubs.com

frequency should provide an uplift to profitability. +55-11-2767 6836

In addition, recent reductions in partner pass-through payments suggest the

company is increasingly monetizing its scale, creating an incremental tailwind

to revenue and margins. Assuming a conservative average frequency of 7 visits

per month during 2Q26 and partner pass-through of R$9.5/subscriber/month,

we estimate TotalPass ARPU of R$25/month.

Highlights (R$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 4,245 5,580 7,242 9,051 10,914 12,659 14,303 15,708

EBIT (UBS) 1,045 1,264 1,698 2,348 3,098 3,782 4,453 5,058