Smartfit "TotalPass Scaled Up: What’s Next?" (Buy) Strano

研报英文原文证据摘录

Smartfit "TotalPass Scaled Up: What’s Next?" (Buy) Strano

er Brazil revenue” segment (~9% of 12/26E 1.46 1.55 6 1.48

consolidated revenue), following the consolidation of TP Mexico and the accounting 12/27E 1.93 2.02 5 1.99

change at Fitmaster, while disclosure remains limited. We estimate TP Brazil 12/28E 2.71 2.80 4 2.50

reached R$98m of net revenue in 1Q26 (~51% of total Brazil revenue), implying

ARPU of R$18/month, and generated R$84m of gross profit (86% of total Brazil gross Vinicius Strano, CFA

profit), while TP Mexico contributed R$20m of revenue and R$19m of gross profit. Analyst

vinicius.strano@ubs.com

See Figure 1 for our estimated breakdown of SMFT’s six business units bundled

+55-11-2767 6688

within “others.” Overall, TP surprised positively on both revenue and, especially,

gross margin. While multiple holidays in Brazil during 1Q26 likely reduced gym Lucca Biasi

frequency and pass-through costs, we still view seasonality as relatively Associate Analyst

lucca.biasi@ubs.com

unfavorable given the Southern Hemisphere summer typically drives higher gym

+55-11-2767 6173

utilization, making TP Brazil’s estimated gross margin of 86% even more impressive.

Isabella Lamas

Where to from here on TotalPass Associate Analyst

isabella.lamas@ubs.com

Looking into 2Q26, favorable TP seasonality should drive sequential revenue growth +55-11-2767 6836

(UBSe 2Q26 TP Brazil revenue of R$133m), potentially supported by lower gym

frequency and consequently lower pass-through costs during the world cup period.

We estimate TP Brazil will more than double revenue from ~R$240m in 2025 to ~R

$510m+ in 2026E, driven by ~69% YoY subscriber growth (+75% in 1Q26) and ~27%

ARPU expansion, largely supported by higher breakage (= co-pay / pass-through),