Aveanna Healthcare Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aveanna Healthcare Model Update

Benjamin Rossi AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-9603 10 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We rate shares of Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) as Neutral within

our coverage universe. Although we believe AVAH’s value

proposition represents a unique way to obtain exposure to the

shift to home health and value-based care for more complex,

higher-cost patients, we remain concerned with AVAH’s

improved but still high leverage (~3.8x net leverage a/o 1Q26)

and broader labor tightness. We also believe the challenging rate

environment and broader reimbursement risk across the

company’s segments represent a longer-term concern, with

YTD 1m 3m 12m >90% of AVAH’s revenue derived from Medicare (~10%) and

Abs -15.9% 1.9% -5.9% 25.6% Medicaid (~80%).

Rel -31.4% 1.7% -18.2% -8.1%

Valuation

Company Data

Our December 2026 price target of $8 is based on a ~9x EV/

Shares O/S (mn) 222

52-week range ($) 10.32-3.73 EBITDA target multiple on our 2027 adj EBITDA estimate,

Market cap ($ mn) 1,525.82 which is a discount to the company’s 3-year historical avg. Our

Exchange rate 1.00 valuation factors AVAH’s level of execution risk in hitting

Free float (%) 41.3%

3M ADV (mn) 1.46 growth targets amid broader changes to Medicaid, the

3M ADV ($ mn) 10.0 continuation of softer Medicare rate development within home

Volatility (90 Day) 46 health, and the company’s leverage profile.

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 8|3|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 2,433 2,645 2,830

Adj. EBITDA 321 340 365

Adj. EBIT 310 329 353

Adj. net income 130 166 185

Adj. EPS 0.60 0.75 0.83

BBG EPS 0.58 0.70 0.76