AVAH: 1Q Beat and raise; Preferred payor momentum accelerating

研报英文原文证据摘录

AVAH: 1Q Beat and raise; Preferred payor momentum accelerating

cations from management that Prev. 2,549.1 2,679.1

episodic arrangements are incrementally becoming the industry norm, EBITDA, Adj Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

fortifying margin for high quality providers. 2025 67.4A 88.4A 80.1A 85.0A

• We believe guidance reflects continued conservatism. Management 2026 84.4A 79.8E 82.1E 84.5E

raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10MM to Prev. 73.0E 80.0E 82.3E 84.8E

EPS, Adj Diluted $328–$332MM (from $318–$322MM), which we believe reflects ample 2025 0.10A 0.18A 0.20A 0.17A

prudence given ongoing Medicaid budget uncertainty and the evolving 2026 0.18A 0.17E 0.18E 0.19E

regulatory backdrop. Given current fundamental momentum, including Prev. 0.14E 0.16E 0.17E 0.18E

continued Preferred Payor penetration gains, a stabilizing labor market, All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

and ongoing AI-driven cost efficiencies in RCM, we are comfortable Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

moving to the upper-end of the guidance range in our estimates.

• Family First acquisition adds incremental upside to guidance. Current

guidance excludes the pending acquisition of Family First Homecare, a

Florida-based pediatric home care company. Family First has ~$120MM

in annualized revenue, and we estimate ~$10MM in annualized post-

synergy EBITDA. With the transaction expected to close in late-2Q and

management indicating a ~6-month integration timeline (consistent with

the Thrive playbook), we believe 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance could

move to $331–$336MM upon deal close. Importantly, management is

confident that the administration's recently announced moratorium on

new home health Medicare licensing will not impede the Family First