Notes From Our Post-1Q26 Call With Management

研报英文原文证据摘录

Notes From Our Post-1Q26 Call With Management

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

Revenue 2,025 2,433 2,575 2,718

Adj. EBITDA 184 321 331 355 Valuation

Adj. EPS $0.06 $0.60 $0.68 $0.76 Our $10 target price is ~10x our '27 EBITDA estimate

representing a slight discount to its 3-year historical Cash Flow Statement 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

average on account of a more moderate next 2-year

Cash from Ops. 33 126 133 176 EBITDA growth outlook and increased Medicaid uncertainty

Capex 6 7 10 8 (relating to the impending OBBBA changes), but offset by a

significant reduction in balance sheet leverage.

Free Cash Flow 26 118 123 168

Balance Sheet 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E Upside Scenario $14.00

Our $14 upside valuation is based on 11.5x our '27 upside Cash & Cash Equivalents 84 193 305 465

EBITDA estimate, which assumes accelerating volumes

Total Debt 1,281 1,300 1,289 1,282 across PDS, HH, and MS accompanied by increasing

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports operating leverage.

Downside Scenario $5.00

Our $5 downside valuation is based on 7x our '27 downside

EBITDA estimate, which assumes decelerating volumes

across PDS, HH, and MS in addition to pressures on

reimbursement rates.

in USD

-35% +30% +81%

Downside Current Target Upside

Scenario Price Price Scenario

5.00 7.72 10.00 14.00

Key Catalysts

Earnings will likely be the primary catalysts with investors

particularly focused on reported PDS hours, trends in

revenue per billable hour, the spread rate, and the pace of

balance sheet de-leveraging. Beyond this, shares could also

be impacted by annual CMS & Medicaid rate updates.

Company Description

AVAH provides a range of clinical & supportive care services

and products, primarily to medically fragile children and