Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs. Co.: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs. Co.: Risk Reward Update

Update

May 28, 2026 12:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs. Co. | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-9886

Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs. Co. (4200.SE,

What’s Changed ALDREES AB)

Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs. Co. (4200.SE) From To EEMEA - Oil & Gas | Saudi Arabia

Price Target SAR 140.50 SAR 135.00 Stock Rating Equal-weight

Bull Case SAR 206.50 SAR 201.00 Industry View No Rating

Base Case SAR 140.50 SAR 135.00 Price target SAR 135.00

Bear Case SAR 80.50 SAR 74.50 Shr price, close (May 21, 2026) SAR 114.90

52-Week Range SAR 154.10- 110.70

Updated Components

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS

Investment Thesis EPS (SAR)** 4.22 4.68 5.55 5.91

Bull Base Bear Scenarios Prior EPS (SAR)** - 5.16 5.64 5.86

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

Risk Reward for Aldrees Petroleum & Transport Svcs. Co. **e ==MorganBased onStanleyconsensusResearchmethodologyestimates

(4200.SE) has been updated

Reason for change

We update our model to incorporate 1Q26 results. The main changes compared to

our previous case are: i) we introduced an explicit forecast for Petrol 98 volumes; ii)

we adjusted truck fleet expansion post 1Q results and management comments on

the earnings call. Our revenues/EBITDA forecasts for 2Q26 sit at

SAR6,708.7/345.1mn, compared to our previous estimates of SAR6,842.2/381.2mn.

FY26/27 EPS decreased by -9.3/1.6% vs. our previous expectation to SAR 4.68/5.55.

On our numbers, the shares trade on a '26/27 EV/EBITDA of 12.0/10.9x and '26/27

dividend yield of 1.8/2.0%. We decrease our Base/Bull/Bear cases to