Aldrees (1K) | Buy | More prudent throughput assumptions

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aldrees (1K) | Buy | More prudent throughput assumptions

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 16 July 2026

Company research

BuyAldrees

Saudi Arabia | Oil & gas MCap: SAR11.2bn

Target Price: SAR133.00 (147.00) Change in TP: -9.5 % Bloomberg: ALDREES AB Reuters: 4200.SE

Current Price: SAR111.90 Change in Sales: -3.2% 26E/-6.3% 27E Free float 96%

Up/downside: 18.9% Change in Adj EBIT: -8.5% 26E/-15.7% 27E Avg. daily volume (SARm) 35.0

YTD abs performance -15.2% Market data: 15 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -9.4% 26E/-19.1% 27E

52-week high/low (SAR) 153.30/111.90

More prudent throughput assumptions Price performance

Why this report?

We expect Aldrees' Q2 2026 fuel volumes to rise c. 12% YOY, driven by

continued network expansion, partly offset by a c. 2% decline in throughput

per station due to higher competition and network densification. We forecast

Q2 revenue of SAR7.14bn (+15% YOY) and net profit of SAR115.7m (+16.1%

YOY). We lower our TP from SAR147 to SAR133 following downward revisions

to our 2026-28E forecasts. With 19% upside, we maintain our Buy rating,

supported by Aldrees' attractive multi-year growth profile, reinforcing its

leadership in KSA's fuel retail market and dividend growth potential.

Key findings

Aldrees should report Q2 2026 results soon. As usual, the reporting date is not

disclosed in advance. For reference, Q2 results were released on 20 July last year. FY to 31/12 (SAR) 12/25 12/26E 12/27E

We expect Q2 fuel volumes to increase by c. 12% YOY to 3.70bn litres, driven by Sales 25,761 29,449 31,793

continued network expansion, with the number of service stations reaching c. EBITDA adj. 1,207 1,268 1,357

EBIT adj. 593 604 615 1,359 at end-Q2 26 vs. 1,329 a quarter ago and 1,200 a year ago. Net profit adj. 418 416 396