RoE inflection, NII upside & best-in-class capital return

研报英文原文证据摘录

RoE inflection, NII upside & best-in-class capital return

tting

the impact of the NIBC deal in 3Q. Overall, 1Q26 pro forma excess CET1 corresponds to c.9% of

the current market cap - see Exh 2.

Exhibit 1 - Inflection in Operational Efficiency

Jaws (%) LHS & Group RoE (%) RHS

We see scope for further upside over '26-28 as RWA optimisation is progressing well, with c.€4bn 10% 14.0%

12.0%delivered driven by improved data quality & SME support factor, with a further c.€1.5bn expected 5%

this year. Portfolio optimisation remains at an earlier stage, with c.€1bn achieved so far (mainly ABF 0% 10.0%8.0%

International wind-down), leaving c.€4bn to come by 2028. SRTs have also contributed c.€1.5bn -5% 6.0%

of RWA relief so far (vs up to €8bn guided). As a reminder, an interim cash dividend of 40% of the -10% 4.0%2.0%

0.0%reported H1 earnings will be announced with 2Q results (JEFe €0.62). -15% 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26

Group Jaws (ex Reg Levies) Last 4Q avg Group RoE

Earnings revisions. We raise NII c.+3% on average over ’26-28, but total revenues increase only c. .Source: Jefferies, Company data

+1% as "Other Income" is weighed down by lower equity participations and a weaker ALM/economic

hedge in Treasury. Costs are cut c.-1%, reflecting front-loaded restructuring charges that should Exhibit 2 - Current pro-forma CET1 ratio (%) vs

capital requirement

remain limited for the rest of the year. We also conservatively increase provisions following updated 18.0%

ECL scenarios (negative weighting from 30% to 55%) with JEFe CoR seen at 8bps in '26 still below 16.0% Target >13.75% 1.8% 14.0%

guidance (vs cons at 11bps), resulting in PBT c.+2% higher on average over the forecast period. 12.0% 2.35%

10.0% c.EUR 2.5bn

8.0% excess cap on 15.6%

JEFe vs Cons.