ABN AMRO: Ticking many boxes but getting expensive

研报英文原文证据摘录

ABN AMRO: Ticking many boxes but getting expensive

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold ABN AMRO 16 July 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

Netherlands

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 16 Jul 2026 (EUR) 38.24

ABNd.AS ABN NA AEX ABNd

Price Target (EUR) 34.00

Banks

52-week range (EUR) 38.63 - 23.76

Ticking many boxes but getting

Valuation & Risks expensive

Benjamin Goy

Good Q2 results and guidance upgrade expected, M&A progressing Research Analyst

On the back of improving net interest income momentum, strong cost control, low +49-69-910-31946

loan losses, positive EPS revisions, high capital ratios enabling rising payouts and

Sharath Kumar

accretive M&A ABN AMRO had a good share price performance YTD. However, Research Analyst

even after our latest EPS upgrades (up to 2%) ahead of 2Q26 results the shares are +44-20-754-79527

now trading at 10.9x 2027E EPS and 8.7% 2027E total yield. A P/E premium to the

Marlene Eibensteiner

sector and closer to the valuation of "national champions" in countries with a

Research Analyst

relatively good macro backdrop, we prefer cheaper "European champions" like ING

+49-69-910-46423

at these levels.

Key changes

2Q26 preview: NII (+), fees (+), costs (=/+), loan losses (+/=) TP 31.00 to 34.00 ↑ 9.7%

We forecast strong reported pre-provision profit growth in 2Q26 thanks to good EPS (Stated) 2.91 to 2.89 ↓ -0.6%

underlying net interest income and fee income growth, the consolidation benefit Source: Deutsche Bank

from the HAL acquisition as well as cost control. More specifically, we expect a

good volume uplift QoQ across deposits (seasonally strong) and loans as well as

ongoing deposit margin expansion. For credit losses we expect stable trends and

a modest increase in the already strong CET1 ratio. With respect to the 2026