ABN AMRO: We are positive into 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

ABN AMRO: We are positive into 2Q26

mate is based on the current forward curve and deposit beta on interest-bearing deposits of

Price Performance Exchange-AEX

c.100%. However, we highlight a deposit beta of c.70% on interest-bearing deposits could add c.

52 Week range EUR 38.78-22.75

€0.3bn to our NII estimates. Our 2Q26 fee estimate of €608m is +7% ahead of Bloomberg

consensus of €570m.

FY28 targets look increasingly conservative: Given the more favourable forward curve and

management's willingness to revise FY26 cost guidance following 1Q26 results, we believe

investors could increasingly expect management to revisit its FY28 RoE target of at least 12%,

set at the November 2025 CMD. Our FY28 RoE estimate of 14.4% sits well above both

management's target and company-compiled consensus of 12.9%. Furthermore, we believe the Source: IDC

Link to Barclays Live for interactive chartinggroup's targets such as annual fee growth of 6-7% YoY out to FY28 look conservative,

considering the group delivered 6% QoQ alone in 1Q26. That said, management may prefer to

remain conservative at this stage and leave FY28 guidance unchanged. European Banks

Namita Samtani, CFA

We make minimal changes to FY26e-28e EPS: We make minimal changes to FY26e EPS and +44 (0)20 3134 2583

increase FY27e-FY28e EPS by 1%, reflecting higher NII estimates. Our PT increases from €35.7 to namita.samtani@barclays.com

€43.8 as we decrease our CoE assumption from 12.5% to 12%, reflecting a less volatile macro Barclays, UK

environment. Reiterate Overweight. Flora Bocahut

+33 (0)1 4458 3131

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies flora.bocahut@barclays.com

covered in its research reports.