FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT / FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT US : We're not Fans - initiate at Underperform

研报英文原文证据摘录

FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT / FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT US : We're not Fans - initiate at Underperform

EQUITIES

INTERNET & MEDIA

FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT UNDERPERFORMPRICE* 6,978p  TARGET PRICE 6,000p (DOWNSIDE 14%)

FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT US UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD95.0  TARGET PRICE USD80 (DOWNSIDE 16%)

We're not Fans – initiate at Underperform

Competition and taxes to weigh on earnings momentum – initiate at Underperform14 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report Flutter’s US operations FanDuel, accounts for c.40% of group revenue but most of its growth

Production time: 05:22* (London time) prospects hence c.70% of EV. However, this faces the rise of PMs like Kalshi and Polymarket. Our

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities proprietary ‘Poll of Punters’ suggests this threat is underappreciated whilst we are sceptical of

Charlie Muir-Sands Flutter’s own likely success in developing a rival offer. Rising gambling taxes are a structural concern

BNP Paribas London Branch worldwide, and are specifically set to drag the UK in 2026 & 2027. We see 15% downside to 2027(+44) 203 430 8432

charles.muir-sands@uk.bnpparibas.com cons. adj EBITDA whilst fundamental DCF and relative value still point to share price downside

despite 70% decline from peak. We initiate coverage at Underperform (see our sector initiation here).

Our ‘Poll of Punters’ underpins our caution on Flutter’s US exposure…

Online sportsbetting and casino-style iGaming should continue to grow quickly, based on our state-

by-state maturity model. However, a newly permissive CFTC has enabled prediction markets to

aggressively expand into sports events. These could be curtailed legally or legislatively, but we think

it could be 2028+ before the ‘rules of the game’ are finally settled, and anyway might herald stricter