Predicting a Rebound; Initiating at Outperform, $138 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

Predicting a Rebound; Initiating at Outperform, $138 PT

Investment Overview

Flutter Entertainment is the world’s largest online sports betting (OSB) and iGaming operator with exposure to the

most attractive markets, led by FanDuel, the U.S. industry revenue share and profit leader, and funded by a mature,

high margin International segment spanning ~100 markets. Shares have lost ~50% of their value over the last six

months on a U.S. growth scare from prediction markets and recent share losses to other sportsbooks. However, we

believe current valuation levels are overweight bearish outcomes with current valuation implying a large disconnect

from consensus estimates and not adequately factoring in the upside opportunity from FLUT’s own prediction market

offering and likelihood for a 2H rebound in relative U.S. performance. At current valuation levels, we believe execution

on just one of these points will be enough to drive shares higher over the coming months.

Bear Case Base Case Bull Case

FLUT sees OSB hold and share FLUT’s U.S. OSB share stabilizes, FanDuel prediction market

compression driven by elevated existing-state cohorts mature share on par with FLUT’s current

competition and prediction market into operating leverage, minimal US OSB market share, US OSB

pricing arbitrage and includes no prediction market contribution/ share stabilization into industry

meaningful contribution from US disruption modeled, and no consolidation, and moderate

prediction market product. major new state additions. annual hold expansion toward

long term targets.

Upcoming Catalysts Primary Value Driver

2026 World Cup, monthly state data releases, 2Q26 US sports betting handle growth (wagers placed), hold

earnings (early August) rate (handle × hold rate = sports betting revenue),