Brazil Education: Pedagogy Curriculum Guidelines May Impose More Costs than Anticipated

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazil Education: Pedagogy Curriculum Guidelines May Impose More Costs than Anticipated

Idea

May 12, 2026 12:25 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MBrazil Education | Latin America Mauricio I Cepeda

Equity Analyst

Pedagogy Curriculum Guidelines Mauricio.Cepeda@morganstanley.comLucas Nagano +55 11 3048-6272

Research Associate

Lucas.Nagano@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6065

May Impose More Costs than Artur D Alves

Artur.Alves@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-4278

Anticipated

Brazil Education Services

Latin America

Potential ruling could raise F2F requirements to 50% vs. 30% Industry View In-Line

previously determined by the 2025 decree. For context, legacy

pedagogy DL was ~25% F2F, meaning 25pp F2F increase in

course hours vs. 5pp before. ANIM (Top Pick) and AFYA are

protected, while VTRU is significantly more exposed than peers.

Key Takeaways

Press reports suggest CNE could potentially approve new curriculum guidelines

(DCN) for pedagogy/teacher training degrees, resolving prior inconsistencies with

the May 2025 decree.

The new resolution would mandate 50% F2F + 20% live vs. the decree's 30% F2F

+ 20% live, significantly increasing the previously anticipated cost impact.

We estimate DL pedagogy accounts for 16% of Vitru's revenue (2024), the most

exposed player, followed by Cogna (8%). Afya/Anima should see virtually no

impact.

This reinforces our preference for ANIM (Top Pick) due to low DL exposure. DCNs

may impose additional requirements for other programs.

With 91% of pedagogy's students in DL format, Brazil is at serious risk of facing a

teacher shortage in the next decade, if the resolution is approved.

What's new? According to press reports, the National Education Council (CNE) is

expected to vote on a new resolution for pedagogy and teacher training curriculum