Molina Healthcare: 2026 Investor Day Takeaways

研报英文原文证据摘录

Molina Healthcare: 2026 Investor Day Takeaways

ontribution from the FL Children's Medical Services (CMS) contract comprised of $2 run-rate

earnings and $1.50 startup costs. Note, this run-rate contribution is $1 lower than MOH's 4Q25

Price Performance Exchange-NYSE

estimate with management attributing the change to broader portfolio recalibration rather than

52 Week range USD 333.00-121.06

any deterioration in the underlying contract. The $2 run-rate implies about 2.5% pre-tax

margins on $6 bn of revenue, which is generally consistent with CNC's prior disclosure of "very-

lsd%" margins. In 2027, MOH expects to realize $4.50 of embedded earnings ($1.50 FL CMS

implementation costs, $1 MAPD exit, $2 operating leverage), implying EPS of at least $9.50

before underlying margin improvement.

Strong G&A Leverage Expected: Despite operating with best-in-class G&A, MOH expects to

drive an additional 50 bps of G&A margin improvement over the next three years through strong Source: IDC

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

operating leverage on fixed costs, which represent half of the company's total cost structure.

Management also highlighted incremental upside from AI worth 100-150 bps that is not

currently reflected in guidance and would translate to roughly $8 of EPS on the 2026 revenue U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed

base. Care

Andrew Mok, CFA

Model updates: We tweak 2026 quarterly cadence for seasonality, but leave our 2026-2027 full- +1 212 526 5496

year estimates/PT largely unchanged. We raise our 2028 and 2029 estimates slightly to account andrew.mok@barclays.com

for updated MLR and G&A targets and model approximately $24 of EPS in 2029 on 2.4% BCI, US

Medicaid margins. Tiffany Yuan

+1 212 526 5568

tiffany.yuan@barclays.com

Barclays Capital Inc.