Molina Healthcare: 2026 Investor Day Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Molina Healthcare: 2026 Investor Day Takeaways

ontribution from the FL Children's Medical Services (CMS) contract comprised of $2 run-rate

earnings and $1.50 startup costs. Note, this run-rate contribution is $1 lower than MOH's 4Q25

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estimate with management attributing the change to broader portfolio recalibration rather than

52 Week range USD 333.00-121.06

any deterioration in the underlying contract. The $2 run-rate implies about 2.5% pre-tax

margins on $6 bn of revenue, which is generally consistent with CNC's prior disclosure of "very-

lsd%" margins. In 2027, MOH expects to realize $4.50 of embedded earnings ($1.50 FL CMS

implementation costs, $1 MAPD exit, $2 operating leverage), implying EPS of at least $9.50

before underlying margin improvement.

Strong G&A Leverage Expected: Despite operating with best-in-class G&A, MOH expects to

drive an additional 50 bps of G&A margin improvement over the next three years through strong Source: IDC

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operating leverage on fixed costs, which represent half of the company's total cost structure.

Management also highlighted incremental upside from AI worth 100-150 bps that is not

currently reflected in guidance and would translate to roughly $8 of EPS on the 2026 revenue U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed

base. Care

Andrew Mok, CFA

Model updates: We tweak 2026 quarterly cadence for seasonality, but leave our 2026-2027 full- +1 212 526 5496

year estimates/PT largely unchanged. We raise our 2028 and 2029 estimates slightly to account andrew.mok@barclays.com

for updated MLR and G&A targets and model approximately $24 of EPS in 2029 on 2.4% BCI, US

Medicaid margins. Tiffany Yuan

+1 212 526 5568

tiffany.yuan@barclays.com

Barclays Capital Inc.