MOH Q2'26 First Take

Research evidence excerpt

MOH Q2'26 First Take

Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care

FLASH

FLASH: MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC. (MOH) July 22, 2026

MOH Q2'26 First Take Rating:

Peer Perform ●MOH First Take – MOH reported adj EPS of $1.51 above WR / Cons of Price:

$1.30 / $1.39 and reported an MLR of 92.2% below WR / Cons. estimates of $221.74

92.5% / 92.4%. While MLR beat our estimate by 30bps, it appears key Medicaid Price Target:

NA segment worsened sequentially as Medicaid MLR of 92.7% was inline with co.

expectations in Q2 vs. Q1 commentary where “medical cost trend was modestly Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

favorable to expectations” for Medicaid. MOH raised FY guide by $0.25 to $5.25 Priced as of 07/22/26

with the guidance raise driven by Q1 Medicaid upside dropping to bottom line –

recall co. had held off updating guidance for this until seeing Q2 - and offsetting

pressure in HIX and better trend in MA of $1.50. We look for color on the call

to focus on rate vs cost trend and pricing dynamics in Medicaid, details on HIX

performance and risk adjustment, drivers of the outperformance in Medicare Justin Lake, CFA

and details on the outlook for H2’26. jlake@wolferesearch.com

●Read-Thru’s for the Group Include: (646) 582-9280

View Justin’s Research

○Medicaid – MOH indicated Medicaid trend deteriorated in Q2 vs. Q1 View MOH Model

although we note the co. described Q2 trend as “stable” – just not better View Comp Table

as in Q1. ELV specifically indicated Q1 upside in Medicaid was Q4 run-out

that didn’t reoccur. UNH continues to indicate Medicaid running toward Dillondnissan@wolferesearch.comNissan

better end of margin guidance. (646) 582-9281

○Med Adv – MOH makes it 3 for 3 in terms of MA beats in Q2 on Ben Tenner

lower trend w/$1.50 guide-up implying 150bps of improvement vs.