MOH: Opining On and Adjusting Model for Key Debates; Spotlighting Undocumented

Research evidence excerpt

MOH: Opining On and Adjusting Model for Key Debates; Spotlighting Undocumented

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)

Equity Research

June 7, 2026

Beyond OB3: Bridging from Mgt's 15-20% Disenrollment to Industry experts

~50%

Attention on OB3 has increased, but we think several Medicaid headwinds/assumptions deserve more

scrutiny. Specifically, the company’s assumption of a 15–20% OB3 impact on ~1.2MM “expanded”

members (~27% of Medicaid) screens aggressive versus industry commentary pointing to potential

disenrollment of 50%+. We think this gap is driven by two structural issues:

1. Definition mismatch: The company’s “expanded” cohort aggregates both federally and state-

expanded members, despite OB3 applying only to federally expanded lives.

2. State-specific policies are not fully embedded: We don't think guidance fully reflects state-specific

policy actions that are independent of OB3 implementation and could amplify attrition.

Below, we isolate CA’s undocumented Medi-Cal cohort, which we believe is captured within the

company’s expansion member disclosure. Those members are not subject to OB3 policies. Excluding

CA from the definition (~180k members), mgt's assumption when applied only to federally expanded

lives would likely translate to ~20-25%, still below expert estimates and aggressive in our view. That

said, we flag a combination of other proposed state-level policy changes and President Trump’s

renewed focus on identifying and deporting undocumented individuals, which appears to have

accelerated attrition in this population and is likely to remain a headwind through ’27.

Heavy Attrition Expected in '26 For Medi-Cal Undocumented Population

1Q results showed higher-than-expected attrition within the undocumented CA Medi-Cal expansion