Management Outlook: Overseas Guided Up; China Trimmed

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 21, 2026 01:56 AM GMT

J&T Global Express Ltd | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Qianlei Fan, CFA

Equity Analyst

Management Outlook:

Overseas Guided Up; China

Trimmed

Key Takeaways

Anti-monopoly investigation in Indonesia towards e-commerce (EC) industry mgmt sees limited impact on business outlook.

EC take-rate increase in some markets: mgmt believes vol growth still important

to key customers, and remains optimistic on outlook.

New country market entrance is ongoing, will disclose when daily parcel is above

50k in respective countries, Colombia has been highlighted by mgmt.

Evan Chen

Research Associate

J&T Global Express Ltd (1519.HK, 1519 HK)

Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure | Hong

Kong

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 20, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

HK$11.60

16

HK$10.04

HK$12.20-7.54

US$12,900

HK$325

Capex hike in China a mild negative surprise to us given its mildly trimmed vol

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

target.

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

Revenue, net (US$ mn)

ModelWare net inc (US

$ mn)

EBITDA (US$ mn)**

Net income (US$ mn)**

EV/EBITDA**

P/E**

ROE (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)**

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

12,158 16,027 18,544 21,709

425

734

983

1,246

No near-term equity financing plans, per management.

Management outlook summary:

• SE Asia: Volumes are seen 50-55% YoY (+50% previously, MSe 56%), on top

of ~35% YoY market volume growth.

• China: Volumes are seen 8-10% YoY (+10% previously).

• New Markets: Volumes are seen +100-120% YoY (+90% previously).

Fuel hike risks are manageable, per management. Network efficiency gain/shift to

new energy vehicles helped offset fuel shocks.

Capex: US$800-900mn in 2026 (US$700-800mn previously). 50%/40%/10%

breakdown in China/SEA/Other markets.

1,049

425

12.2

29.8

15.1

2.3

1,485

734

9.3

19.3

23.3

4.3

1,829

983

7.5

14.5

27.0

5.4

2,180

1,246

6.1

11.5

29.1

6.7

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

…