1H26 Results in-line with Our Estimates; Capex Guided Up

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M

Update

August 20, 2026 12:58 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

J&T Global Express Ltd | Asia Pacific

Qianlei Fan, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Results in-line with Our

Estimates; Capex Guided Up

Evan Chen

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

In-line

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Adj. EBIT was in-line with MSe. In our forecasts, we factored in a minor decrease

in unit EBIT vs 2H25, in SEA (Fuel and FX) and New Markets (expansion).

Capex guided up to US$800-900mn for full year 2026, vs. US$700-800mn

previously.

We think management will likely raise full-year volume growth targets. We focus

on SE Asia. Previously, management target was 50% YoY growth.

Currently, we are forecasting 56% full-year growth in SE Asia. If management's

target is more aggressive, we see potential upside to our earnings forecasts.

J&T reported 1H26 adj. NP of US$351mn, representing 48% of our FY26 estimate of

US$734mn. Adj. EBITDA was US$730mn, +68% YoY, Adj. EBIT was US$433mn, inline with MSe.

Positive FCF: OCF was US$635.5mn, Capex US$425.9mn, we estimate FCF stayed

positive after considering lease payment.

J&T Global Express Ltd (1519.HK, 1519 HK)

Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure | Hong

Kong

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 20, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

HK$11.60

16

HK$10.04

HK$12.20-7.54

US$12,900

HK$325

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

Revenue, net (US$ mn)

ModelWare net inc (US

$ mn)

EBITDA (US$ mn)**

Net income (US$ mn)**

EV/EBITDA**

P/E**

ROE (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)**

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

12,158 16,027 18,544 21,709

425

734

983

1,246

1,049

425

12.2

29.8

15.1

2.3

1,485

734

9.3

19.3

23.3

4.3

1,829

983

7.5

14.5

27.0

5.4

2,180

1,246

6.1

11.5

29.1

6.7

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

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