Model Update Post F1Q27 Results

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 21, 2026 02:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Niva Bupa Health Insurance | Asia Pacific

Subramanian Iyer

Equity Analyst

Model Update Post F1Q27

Results

Meera Midha

Research Associate

Sakshi V Chaplot

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Niva Bupa Health Insurance Co. Ltd. (NIVA.NS)

From

To

Price Target

Rs91.00

Rs93.00

F1Q27 was the first quarter under IndAS, although the company

has been providing this data for some time. We lower loss ratio

forecasts following the strong beat and now build CISR of

99.6% by F2029. Despite conservative investment yields, we see

ROE of ~16% by F2029. Limited upside keeps us EW.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance Co. Ltd. (NIVA.NS,

NIVABUPA IN)

India Financials | India

F2028-29, translating into a 21% insurance revenue CAGR. Following strong GST-led

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 20, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (bn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

tailwinds, we expect growth to moderate in 2H as the base kicks in.

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)**

Prior EPS (Rs)**

ModelWare net inc (Rs

mn)

P/E

P/BV

Return on avg eqty

(%)**

1.97

0.71

3,653

2.68

0.93

4,999

3.38

2.47

6,286

4.46

3.68

8,308

35.9

3.7

10.6

30.9

3.7

12.9

24.6

3.2

13.9

18.6

2.7

15.8

We forecast post-1/n GWP CAGR of 22% over F2026-29, driven by a 25% CAGR in

retail health. We forecast post-1/n GWP growth of 25% in F2027 and 20% each in

Better loss ratios drive combined insurance service ratio (CISR) improvement to

99.6% by F2029: F1Q loss ratios were better than expectations, although the

infectious season, typically 2Q-3Q, has yet to play out. We reassess loss ratios to

64.5% in F2027 and build some margin of safety with 2Q loss ratios at 65.5% (vs.

65% in F2Q26 and 63% in F1Q). We build in 65% in F2028 and 65.5% in F2029,

building gradual increases as the portfolio seasons. We expect operating leverage to

drive improvements in CISR to 100.5%, 100.1% and 99.6% in F2027-29, respectively.

Equal-weight

Attractive

Rs93.00

12

Rs82.88

US$1.6

US$1.7

…