1H26 Beat with CM310 Guidance Raised; Rich 2H Catalyst Pipeline: Keymed Biosciences Inc. | Asia Pacific

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M

Update

August 20, 2026 12:34 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Keymed Biosciences Inc. | Asia Pacific

Jack Lin

Equity Analyst

1H26 Beat with CM310

Guidance Raised; Rich 2H

Catalyst Pipeline

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Vanessa Liao

Research Associate

Keymed Biosciences Inc. (2162.HK, 2162 HK)

Strengthens our thesis

Meaningful upside

Meaningful revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

China Healthcare | China

RMB393mn was +17% above our estimate. AZ milestone was bookd earlier.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 20, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

IFRS net profit: c. RMB 1,218mn (vs. RMB79mn loss in 1H25), in line with profit

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

alert. Ouro upfront (c. Rmb1.6bn) was fully accounted as FV gains in 1H.

EPS (Rmb)**

Revenue, net (Rmb mn)

EBITDA (Rmb mn)

ModelWare net inc

(Rmb mn)

P/E

P/BV

RNOA (%)

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

Div yld (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)**

Leverage (EOP) (%)

(1.87)

716

(501)

(523)

0.40

1,598

256

111

1.03

2,225

486

287

0.13

2,312

303

37

NM

4.8

(24.6)

(21.1)

NM

0.0

(7.6)

(17.7)

167.7

6.5

5.3

4.0

72.5

0.0

(2.0)

(3.5)

64.9

5.9

9.8

10.0

38.3

0.0

(0.1)

(1.9)

498.1

5.8

2.0

1.2

61.0

0.0

(0.7)

(5.4)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Top line: c. RMB617mn (+24% YoY), in line with profit alert. CM310 uptake at c.

Notably, CM310 full-year 2026 sales guidance rose to c. RMB850mn (from

RMB750mn) – I.e., an 18% HoH/c. 200% YoY ramp. Peak sales of RMB5bn in

China reiterated.

2H catalysts: CM310 adolescent AD/PN NDA approvals, CMG901 Ph3 detailed

data and BLA/NDA filings, and CM512 China CRSwNP Ph2/US asthma Ph1b data

disclosure.

Net liquidity was RMB2.56bn against OCF of -RMB254mn, leaving a strong R&D

cash runway ahead of proposed STAR listing.

1H26 revenue was c. RMB617mn (+24% YoY), in line with the profit alert:

Overweight

Attractive

HK$97.00

25

HK$77.75

HK$89.75-44.66

280

HK$21,749

HK$21,177

HK$162

…