Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 20, 2026 12:25 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

APA Group | Asia Pacific

Rob Koh

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

APA Group (APA.AX)

From

To

Price Target

A$10.47

A$10.46

Bull Case

A$12.06

A$12.08

Base Case

A$9.97

A$10.46

Bear Case

A$6.83

A$7.24

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risks to Price Target / Rating

APA Group (APA.AX, APA AU)

Australia Utilities & Infrastructure | Australia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 20, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Equal-weight

In-Line

A$10.46

A$10.19

A$11.10-8.45

06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e

Risk Reward for APA Group (APA.AX) has been updated

EPS (A$)**

Prior EPS (A$)**

Reason for change

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We tweak our APA price target to A$10.46/share (-1cps), after incorporating:

0.18

0.17

0.25

0.23

0.27

0.26

0.33

• APA's FY26 results and FY27 guidance;

• Updates to Wallumbilla Gas Pipeline exchange rates for FY27-FY30;

• Adding the Sybella Creek Solar (72MW) + Battery (52MW/104MWh) project;

• Correcting a modelling error for power station re-contracting assumptions

post 2030; and

• Rolling forward of our valuation from 20 May 2206 to 20 Aug 2026.

We life our bull case 2cps, in line with the move in our base case.

We lift our bear case 41cps (6%) on organic growth prospects and leverage to the

powering AI theme.

EPS changes:

• FY27e: +11% on lower interest costs offsetting slightly lower earnings.

• FY28e: +4% on lower interest costs offsetting slightly lower earnings.

• FY29e: first time estimate.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

Research as only a single factor in making their investment

decision.