Hokuetsu Corporation: Updating our forecasts: Earnings weak at present but we expect improvement via price hikes in 28/3

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Research

Hokuetsu Corporation

18 August 2026

3865.T 3865 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN PAPER & PULP

Updating our forecasts: Earnings weak at present but we

expect improvement via price hikes in 28/3

Rating

Remains

We expect price hikes for printing paper and white paperboard to feed

through to earnings from H2, see solid prices for North American pulp

Increased from JPY 820

We fine-tune our forecasts, expect profits to improve in 28/3, retain Neutral rating

We fine-tune our forecasts for Hokuetsu Corporation. While we expect weak earnings in

27/3 because of cost increases, we still think profits will recover in 28/3 as the company

works to pass these increases on to product prices. We obtain our target price of ¥830 by

multiplying our 28/3 EPS forecast by a P/E of just over 10x (versus 10–11x previously), a

40% discount (unchanged) versus the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials) average

of around 17x. That said, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and the

company's earnings exposure to forex rates and prices for pulp and inputs continues to

warrant attention.

We look for weak earnings in 27/3 on rising costs but forecast improvements in

margins via price hikes from H2 onwards

We nudge up our 27/3 operating profit forecast from ¥7.8bn to ¥8.0bn (up 6% y-y). The

company hiked product prices in 26/3, but fuel and raw material costs have been rising

sharply because of yen depreciation and the Middle East conflict, and margins have

proved slow to recover. The company is guiding for operating profits of ¥3.0bn, which

does not factor in any price hikes in 27/3, but it has been working to raise prices for

printing paper and white paperboard since July, and we expect profits to improve thanks to

additional price hikes from H2 onwards. Pulp prices in North America, the main market for

Hokuetsu Corporation's Canadian pulp business, have been improving since autumn

2025, and we assume a modest y-y rise over full-year 27/3. However, prices in China, the

biggest market for pulp, have been falling a little recently, and will warrant attention going

forward (Hokuetsu has low sales volumes in China).

…