JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Research

18 August 2026

JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Japan’s UST holdings fall as intervention funding

draws attention

USD/JPY rises as oil prices and intervention risks remain in focus; the

shape of the JGB yield curve matters for JPY

• Rising oil prices are supporting USD/JPY in the upper 159 range, while global and

Japanese bond markets remain volatile. Intervention concerns make trading near 160

particularly sensitive.

• Japan’s US Treasury holdings fell sharply, mainly because of reduced short-term bills.

This may reflect funding for JPY-buying intervention, which might remain sustainable

through short-term assets and the Fed’s FIMA Repo Facility. Nonetheless, speculation

about the sources of funding for future intervention is likely to remain in the market.

• Markets increasingly expect a September BOJ rate hike, while quarterly hikes into

2027 will be key for JPY strength. Upcoming BOJ and government events, along with

the 20-year JGB auction, will likely help determine whether faster tightening and a

bear-flattening yield curve can limit JPY depreciation.

Research Analysts

Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

Yuki Kodera - NSC

Fig. 1: USD/JPY and spread between 10yr and 2yr JGB yields

Fig. 2: Japan's exposure to US Treasury Securities

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura

Note: Based on US TIC data.

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura

USD/JPY recovers to the upper 159 range as oil prices continue to rise

Amid considerable uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, crude oil

prices have continued to rise, while bond markets have become unstable globally. At the

start of the week, pressure toward a bear steepening was also evident in JGB market, and

USD/JPY rose to the upper 159 range today (Fig. 1 ). Although the US–Japan interest-rate

differential is narrowing on expectations of a faster pace of BOJ rate hikes, the rise in

crude oil prices is likely to remain a persistent source of downward pressure on JPY for

now. With the risk of intervention still in focus, volatile trading is likely around the 160, but

USD/JPY is likely to remain elevated for the time being.

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