TV Asahi Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Research

TV Asahi Holdings

18 August 2026

9409.T 9409 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN MEDIA

We factor in decline in market multiples, keep our

Neutral rating

Spot ad market conditions remain highly uncertain; watching for

measures to stabilize medium-term earnings at TDP

Rating

Remains

Neutral

Target price

JPY 3,350

Reduced from 3,750

Spot ad market remains uncertain; we keep our Neutral rating

Even in mid-August we are not seeing signs that the situation in the Middle East will

become more stable, and the outlook for spot ad prices remains highly uncertain. On the

other hand, the Tokyo Dream Park (TDP) business, which opened at end-March 2026, got

off to a strong start, partly thanks to tailwinds in its first year in operation. We lower our

sales forecasts for the broadcasting business but raise them for the TDP business and

fine-tune our operating profit forecasts. We lower our target price, mainly to reflect lower

market multiples, and retain our Neutral rating due to a lack of upside catalysts.

Closing price

JPY 3,060

17 August 2026

+9.5%

Implied upside

Relative performance chart

We now forecast an EPS CAGR of 4.7% through 32/3 over our 27/3 forecast (versus 4.2%

previously), below the 6–7% average for the Russell/Nomura Large Cap Index (ex

financials). We are also mindful of the risk that the advertising market could weaken

further if the Iran conflict continues to drag on. We therefore obtain our target price of

¥3,350 by multiplying our 27/3 EPS forecast of ¥222.7 by a P/E of about 15x, a roughly

20% discount to the benchmark average of about 19x.

Earnings forecasts: We make only slight adjustments to our operating profit

forecasts

We nudge up our 27/3 operating profit forecast from ¥18.0bn to ¥18.5bn, as although we

lower our forecasts for spot ad revenues and streaming ad revenues, we raise our

forecast for the TDP & events business. We also fine-tune our medium-term operating

profit forecasts, raising our forecast for 28/3 from ¥20.3bn to ¥20.5bn and our forecast for

29/3 from ¥21.3bn to ¥21.5bn to reflect slight downward revisions to our forecasts for

streaming advertising revenues and upward revisions to our forecasts for the TDP &

…