Nippon Paper Industries: Updating our forecasts: Impact of earthquake and accident unclear

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Research

Nippon Paper Industries

18 August 2026

3863.T 3863 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN PAPER & PULP

Updating our forecasts: Impact of earthquake and

accident unclear

Aiming to pass on cost increases for paper and paperboard, solid performance at daily-life

products segment in Japan but weak performance overseas

We lower operating profit forecasts to factor in earthquake and accident, retain

Neutral rating

We lower our 27/3 operating profit forecast for Nippon Paper Industries on the assumption

that both NDP in the US, where production has been suspended since the accident in

May, and the Yatsushiro plant in Kumamoto Prefecture, where production has been

suspended since the earthquake in July, will remain out of action for around four months

apiece. We make no major changes to our 28/3 forecasts as the company has been

working to pass on cost increases across the board in Japan, but we will be watching how

it decides to restore these two plants. We lower our target price to ¥1,320, which we

obtain by multiplying our 28/3 EPS forecast by a P/E of around 8.5x, a 50% discount (as

before) to the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials) average of around 17x.

We lower 27/3 operating profit forecast on suspension of operations at two plants

We forecast 27/3 operating profits of ¥20.8bn (down 18% y-y; no guidance issued).

Production has been suspended since 26 May at NDP in Washington State, which

produces paperboard for paper containers, following the collapse of a chemical tank, and

since 28 July at the Yatsushiro plant in Kumamoto Prefecture, which produces newsprint,

following an earthquake. We lower our operating profit forecast by ¥4.7bn mainly because

we assume that both plants will remain out of action for around four months (no restart

date has been given for either of them). The company has been focusing on preventing

any impact on sales via alternative production at other plants and procurement from other

companies, but we expect a negative impact on profits from procurement and logistics

costs. Yen depreciation and rising energy costs have pushed up costs substantially in the

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