Still in the waiting room: HealthCo REIT | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 17, 2026 11:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

HealthCo REIT | Asia Pacific

Lauren A Berry

Equity Analyst

Still in the waiting room

Simon Chan

Equity Analyst

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest shortfall

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

HealthCo REIT (HCW.AX, HCW AU)

Key Takeaways

HCW has provided FY27 FFOps guidance for >4.0c, after two years (FY25/26) of

suspended guidance due to the Healthscope (HSO) administration.

Underlying (look-through) FFO guidance is for 6.1c (includes HCW's share of

UHF), albeit this vehicle is not paying a divi at present due to HSO/hedge roll-off.

On one hand - HCW resuming guidance can be seen as a positive as it signals

management is confident the HSO situation will be resolved this year.

On the other - DPS guidance of 6.0c could be >150% payout vs AFFO, if UHF

does not pay a cash divi and replacement leases have large incentives.

NTA is A$1.35/share (down 4c vs 1H) with cap rate +15bps to 6.06%.

What's new? HCW has reinstated guidance for FY27 - forecasting FFOps of >4.0c

(low end assumes minimal cash distributions from UHF), Underlying FFOps of 6.1c

(includes HCW's look-through share of UHF earnings, which has been impacted by

the roll-off of the 1.2% swap at end-FY26), and DPS of 6.0c, which is largely aligned

with look-through earnings.

While we do think that issuing guidance is a positive in that it is signalling a nearterm resolution of the HSO leases, our concern is that the 6.0c guidance is not cash-

Australia Property | Australia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 17, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (A$)**

Prior EPS (A$)**

Gross rents (A$ mn)

EBITDA (A$ mn)

FFO (A$ mn)**

FFO/shr, analyst

defined (A$)

FFO yld (%)**

Div per shr (includes

special DPS) (A$)

Div yld (%)

P/E

EV/EBITDA

Underweight

In-Line

A$0.70

A$0.72

A$0.85-0.60

550

A$393

A$458

A$1

06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

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