Ecorodovias (ECOR3.SA): Post-2Q26 Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Action |

17 Aug 2026 18:00:00 ET │ 14 pages

Ecorodovias (ECOR3.SA)

Post-2Q26 Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

We reiterate our Buy rating on Ecorodovias with TP slightly lower at

R$9.40/sh (from R$9.60), on estimate changes shown in Figure 1.

Incorporating 2Q26 results drove a slightly higher top-line forecast after

better-than-expected toll-roads tariff revisions in key concessions.

Meanwhile, Citi's lower SELIC rates forecast contributed on the earnings

level in addition to the company's higher exposure to inflation-linked

bonds. However, the capex backlog came marginally bigger in the 2Q and

justified our marginally higher capex in the coming years, driving the slight

TP downward revision even after the more positive earnings trajectory.

Although we see limited short-term catalysts that could overcome macro

sentiment, we believe the stock looks substantially undervalued, with

price action overshooting to the negative side on an interest rates

exposure that looks overestimated by the market. We view the stock

trading at a ~20% real IRR.

Estimates

Sales (R$M)

EBITDA adj (R$M)

EBITDA margin adj (%)

Net income (R$M)

EPS (R$)

Valuation

EV/EBITDA adj

PE

FCF (%)

2025A

11,521

5,571

48.4

868

1.25

2026E

11,922

5,648

47.4

359

0.52

2027E

13,224

6,721

50.8

951

1.37

3.7

4.8

-5.5

4.4

11.6

-1.8

4.2

4.4

23.9

2028E

13,899

7,232

52.0

1,033

1.49

Q126A

Q226A

2,559

2,955

1,405

1,348

54.9

45.6

-22

10

-0.03

0.01

Ratios

4.4 ROE adj (%)

4.0 ROIC adj (%)

34.1 Debt to Capital (%)

Q326E

3,208

1,445

45.1

225

0.32

2025A

21.5

13.8

85.8

Buy

Price (17 Aug 26 18:00)

R$5.98

Target price

R$9.40↓

from R$9.60

Expected share price return

57.2%

Expected dividend yield

2.2%

Expected total return

59.4%

Market Cap

R$4,164M

US$797M

Filipe NielsenAC

Q426E

3,199

1,449

45.3

146

0.21

2026E

7.9

11.0

86.6

Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research.