SuZhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ): 2Q26 NP Beat on GM, Revenue Constrained by Materials Supply

Research evidence excerpt

Action |

18 Aug 2026 12:27:08 ET │ 16 pages

Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ)

2Q26 NP Beat on GM, Revenue Constrained by Materials Supply

CITI'S TAKE

TFC reported 2Q26 revenue of RMB 1,498mn (-1% YoY), below CITIe/BBGe

by 12%/8%, reflecting periodic upstream material supply constraints. Net

profit of RMB 712mn (+27% YoY) beat CITIe/BBGe by 16%/35%, with gross

margin of 64.7% beating CITIe/BBGe by 14.1/15.9ppts, driven by passive

optical component mix and supply-constrained pricing upgrade. We

expect OE UTR to gradually ramp up to 80% by end of 2H from 30-40% in

2Q26. 200G EML shortage remains the key concern in near term and will

likely improve in 2027. Despite the market concerns on CPO delay, TFC

will continue to participate in its key customer CPO solutions (FAU, FAU

assembly, Fibre Tray, etc.). New TP of Rmb378. Reiterate Buy as a CPO

beneficiary. Share price should react positively on CPO/NPO update

during CIOE/ECOC and NVIDIA Spectrum-X CPO switch production

ramp.

Buy

Model Update — We lower our 2026E/27E/28E revenue by 19%/20%/17% to RMB

10,653mn/29,040mn/51,214mn and net profit by 14%/22%/19% to RMB

3,792mn/10,447mn/15,399mn, primarily reflecting the near-term supply constraint

impact on revenue ramp and market concern on CPO delay. Gross margin is revised

to 50.2%/48.6%/40.9% for 2026E/27E/28E (+2.2ppts/−0.9ppts/−1.2ppts vs. prior)

to reflect higher-than-expected passive contribution in 2026 and ramping OE in

2027-28. Citi estimates remain materially above BBG consensus across

2026E/27E/28E — 11%/89%/129% above on revenue and 5%/70%/73% above on

net profit — reflecting our more constructive view on the pace of AI-driven optical

interconnect demand and TFC as a CPO beneficiary. We lower TP to RMB 378 (from

RMB 419) on 39.5x 2027E PE (from 34.3x), based on 3-year historical average (from

5-year historical average), which covers the AI-driven capex cycle and is supported

by 97% 3-year earnings CAGR. We also believe the risk on TFC regarding potential

FCC impact is minimal among our optical interconnect coverage.

Kyna WongAC

Short-Term View: Upside

Price (18 Aug 26 15:00)

Target price

from Rmb419.000

Expected share price

return

…