Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF.N): Model Update; Raising TP to US$130, Keep Buy

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18 Aug 2026 23:01:03 ET │ 14 pages

Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF.N)

Model Update; Raising TP to US$130, Keep Buy

CITI'S TAKE

KOF remains one of our preferred consumer names despite a tough Mexican

consumer backdrop. We lift DCF-based TP to US$130 from US$125 for new

operating assumptions and reiterate Buy, moving 2026 Mexico vol. closer to

flat (from decline), while Brazil vol. remains positive and Colombia should

support KOF’s South America growth & margin expansion. For 2027, easier

Mexico comps and better operating leverage should drive renewed volume

growth, although PET and aluminum headwinds should keep consolidated

margins broadly flat. We assume no incremental impact from Brazil’s

Selective Tax in 2027 but see the still-undefined rate as a 2028+ risk. At

14.4x 2027E P/E, KOF offers an 8% EPS CAGR, a 4.2% dividend yield and

balance-sheet optionality; our US$130 TP implies 17.7x P/E. In a difficult

consumption environment, we think that combination remains compelling.

Mexico: From Decline to Flat; Growth Returns in 2027E. We revise 2026 Mexico

volume assumption closer to flat, versus our previous expectation for a 3% decline.

Mexican consumption has not become strong; rather, KOF’s strategy of initially

absorbing the excise tax and prioritizing affordability, volumes and market share

appear to be working. KOF passed through approximately 85% of the excise tax,

while volumes improved sequentially through 2Q. In our view, pricing should still run

below inflation in 3Q, but KOF is gradually rebuilding pricing from a stronger marketshare position. For 2027E, easier comps, potentially better consumption, improved

pricing and operating leverage should return Mexico to positive volume growth.

n

Buy

Price (18 Aug 26 16:00)

US$109.59

Target price

US$130.00↑

from US$125.00

Expected share price return

18.6%

Expected dividend yield

4.2%

Expected total return

22.8%

Market Cap

US$23,023M

Price Performance

(RIC: KOF.N, BB: KOF US)

South America Is Doing More of the Heavy Lifting in 2026E. We expect positive

Brazil volumes in 2026E, while Colombia volume remains particularly strong, with

high single-digit volume growth accompanied by improving profitability. Brazil

…