Tupy (TUPY3.SA): New CFO Sets the Stage for a Better Cycle

Research evidence excerpt

Flash |

18 Aug 2026 11:16:41 ET │ 12 pages

Tupy (TUPY3.SA)

New CFO Sets the Stage for a Better Cycle

CITI'S TAKE

We came away from our conversation with Tupy’s new CFO, Augusto

Ribeiro, encouraged by the company’s internal reset and an increasingly

constructive North American cycle. Management sees a recovery in Class

8 demand taking shape, with Q2 fleet orders to OEMs up 45% and freight

rates at their highest level in four years. Importantly, Tupy expects

earnings to improve sequentially from here, supported by both cyclical

recovery and structural initiatives. The company is simultaneously

reducing excess capacity, cutting fixed costs, improving pricing discipline

and reallocating capital toward machining and assembly. With the weaker

quarters behind it, management expects deleveraging to be largely

organic, while excess cash should increasingly be directed toward gross

debt reduction. The key opportunity is to move Tupy to a structurally

higher profitability floor, reducing the earnings volatility historically

associated with the business. We see Tupy trading at 6.8x 2027E P/E.

North America: cycle recovery becoming visible – Management believes the North

American market is entering a structural recovery, particularly in Class 8. Q2 orders

from fleets to OEMs increased ~45%, while freight rates are at their highest level in

four years. ACT forecasts double-digit industry growth in 2026-28. Tupy expects its

North American business to benefit

ly, with Class 8 volumes

recovering from a low base. Management also sees potential for Tupy’s US Class 8

market share to increase from ~15% currently to 30-35% as projects under

negotiation ramp up.

Buy

Price (17 Aug 26 18:00)

R$15.11

Target price

R$19.00

Expected share price return

25.7%

Expected dividend yield

0.8%

Expected total return

26.5%

Market Cap

R$2,179M

US$419M

Andre Mazini, CFAAC

Kiepher Kennedy

Piero Trotta

Capacity optimization and strategy – Tupy is completing a major capacity reset,

including the closure of Betim’s final operating shift and the elimination redundant

positions. Production will be increasingly concentrated in Joinville, improving fixedcost absorption and efficiency.…