XP Inc. (XP.O): In-Line: Strong Capital Return, Yet Revenue Growth Remains the Key Debate - 2Q26 Results

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17 Aug 2026 17:39:54 ET │ 12 pages

XP Inc. (XP.O)

In-Line; Strong Capital Return, Yet Revenue Growth Remains the Key

Debate- 2Q26 Results

CITI'S TAKE

XP reported 2Q26 net income of R$1,384mn, up 5% y/y and 2% above

both our estimate and the company-collected consensus. Client assets

grew 12%y/y, below our expectations, although retail net new money

matched our R$20bn per quarter forecast. Revenue increased 8%y/y,

broadly in line with our estimates, with a retail/wholesale mix similar to

expectations, while lower sales taxes and deductions supported net

revenue. The annualized retail take rate declined 5bp y/y to 1.20%, also

reflecting MtM impacts from fixed income products. New verticals

continued to represent roughly 17% of retail revenues. Costs came in

slightly below our forecast, driven by lower commissions, while SG&A rose

9%y/y, in line with our expectations. As a result, the combination of

modestly higher net revenue, lower commissions, and stronger

contributions from JVs and associates drove EBT 7% above our estimate.

This was partially offset by a higher effective tax rate of 12%.

Implications — XP delivered a quarter that was broadly in line with our expectations,

despite the EBT beat driven by the factors discussed above. While the results were

generally decent, we continue to see some challenges around achieving the

company's gross revenue guidance, as gross revenues increased 8% in 1H26. That

said, we believe the company could still deliver an EBT margin within the guided

range, albeit potentially closer to the lower end. We remain somewhat cautious

regarding the pace of growth in the current macroeconomic environment, as well as

management’s visibility on future revenue trends, particularly given the possibility

that top-line growth may come in below guidance. Nevertheless, capital return

continues to be a key element of the investment case. The company repurchased

R$1.0bn of shares in 1H26 and distributed R$518mn in dividends, while an

additional buyback program of up to R$1.0bn remains in place. In addition, XP

cancelled 11.8mn Class A shares, equivalent to 2.3% of total shares outstanding. The

Estimates

Sales (R$M)

EBITDA adj (R$M)

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