Evolent Health: Updating Our Estimates and Reviewing the Moving Parts For 2027

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

17 August 2026

Evolent Health

Updating Our Estimates and Reviewing the Moving

Parts For 2027

Overweight

EVH, EVH US

Price (14 Aug 26):$4.68

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$6.00

Prior (Dec-26):$5.00

We broadly believe that through the first half of the year, Evolent has

delivered on the expectations for 2026, with implementation of the Aetna and

Highmark contracts appearing to be on-track and navigating a dynamic backdrop

for Medicaid and the ACA Exchanges. Within the quarter, the adj. EBITDA beat

in 2Q (aided by earlier than anticipated PYD recognition), leading to a lower ramp

into the second half of the year. EVH’s preliminary 2027 growth commentary of

>25% revenue growth was ahead of expectations and is underpinned by recent

wins (notably a $300M Performance Suite agreement announced as part of

earnings) and includes assumptions around Medicaid attrition. On Medicaid, we

note that it represents ~33% of revenue in 2Q26, with Medicaid Expansion

representing ~20% of Medicaid enrollment in our discussions, meaning that work

requirements (staggered over several years) we estimate translate into a -LSD%

headwind at most across several years, and reflected in EVH’s early 2027

commentary. The ~$20M of adj. EBITDA improvement baseline and improved

OCF generation in 2027 should support continued deleveraging, which we believe

remains a key factor for the name.

We view EVH as taking a consistent view with payors on Medicaid attrition

into 2027 with an industry-driven ~20% decline in Medicaid Expansion members

(although we do think there is some risk to an upward skew in attrition). That loss

would translate into roughly 4%–5% of EVH's Medicaid membership (consistent

with commentary we’ve heard from CNC here, and MOH here and slightly above

CMS estimates here), although we assume that the enrollment attrition would be

staggered through 2027 and 2028. We noted in our review of CMS enrollment that

Medicaid attrition has accelerated in early 2026, although it appears EVH is

managing through that headwind. When thinking about 2027, EVH has signaled

that payor exits will create client-specific enrollment headwinds, with several large

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