Risk Reward Update: Verisure PLC | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 17, 2026 03:49 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Verisure PLC | Europe

Annelies Vermeulen

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Verisure PLC (VSURE.ST, VSURE SS)

What’s Changed

Business Services | Sweden

Verisure PLC (VSURE.ST)

From

To

Bear Case

€10.00

€9.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Investment Drivers

Risk Reward for Verisure PLC (VSURE.ST) has been updated

Reason for change

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 14, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

Overweight

Attractive

€18.50

€9.47

€16.62-8.05

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

0.35

0.58

0.69

0.70

0.81

0.82

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We publish our model for the 2Q26 results. We slightly lower our FY26 new

subscribers estimate to 899k (implying +3% yoy growth) vs 912k previously,

following a slightly slower 2Q for new installs. Our FY26 adj EBIT estimate is

virtually unchanged (<1%) at €1,094m and implies a margin of 26.2%, in line with

guidance for margins >26%. All our other headline KPI assumptions are broadly

unchanged. Our price target is unchanged at €18.50 and we remain Overweight. We

do however flex our bear case downwards to €9 to reflect a weaker consumer

backdrop vs previously.

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