1H26e: China Holds, Overseas Resets

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Idea

August 17, 2026 03:48 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Pop Mart | Asia Pacific

Dustin Wei

Equity Analyst

1H26e: China Holds, Overseas

Resets

Jenny Yu

Research Associate

Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

What’s Changed

Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK)

From

To

Price Target

HK$247.00

HK$214.00

We expect the stock to remain range-bound around 1H26

results, despite high-comp pressure in 2H, as we consider the

factors of low expectations in our key 1H assumptions, investors'

bearish positions, potential updates on company's key initiatives

and DYP's active trading in Pop Mart shares.

Stock view: Investor positioning ahead of 1H26 results is bearish. Pop Mart has

provided little incremental information over the past ~3 months, while highfrequency data show a sharp slowdown in overseas sales. Investors have therefore

Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK, 9992 HK)

China/Hong Kong Consumer | China

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 17, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

HK$214.00

39

HK$153.50

HK$339.80-140.10

US$26,270

US$440

anchored on the weakest visible data, with relatively limited evidence on overall

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

offline demand and the company's latest execution on its initiatives highlighted in

EPS (Rmb)**

Prior EPS (Rmb)**

Revenue, net (Rmb mn)

ModelWare net inc

(Rmb mn)

Net income (Rmb

mn)**

P/E

Curr P/E, basic, for

cons

ROE (%)

9.68

8.40

9.47 10.71

10.0

11.6

13.3

37,120 37,563 42,892 48,667

12,776 11,074 12,480 14,125

1Q26.

Our 1H26 model predicts 29% sales growth and 18% NP growth, with NP landing at

Rmb5.4bn. Given our conservatism in modeling 1H, the following KPIs could be

better than our assumptions: China offline sales, US/Europe store productivity,

overseas SG&A and GPM. Retail investors’ elevated expectations remain a key

downside risk, given their significant share of the shareholder base. Those still

expecting double-digit% sales growth in 2026 (vs. MSe +1%) could be disappointed

by the 3Q26 sales update (vs. MSe -30% to -35%).…