JR & Airline O-Bon Transport Data: First Impression Is Even Given Adverse Weather, There Is More Evidence of Belt-tightening

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M

Update

August 17, 2026 03:21 PM GMT

Transportation | Japan

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

JR & Airline O-Bon Transport

Data: First Impression Is Even

Given Adverse Weather, There

Is More Evidence of Belttightening

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

Airlines

Japan

Industry View

In-Line

Related Reports:

Key Takeaways

Airlines/Tourism: Inbound Demand by Airport

(MoJ Data for July 2026): First Uptick in 4

The 2026 O-bon holiday period was impacted by the Kumamoto Earthquake and

Months but Too Soon for Optimism (14 Aug

adverse weather, including typhoon activity and heavy rains. Our initial

2026)

impression is that Japanese travel demand is increasingly affected by cost

Airlines: Airline Company O-bon Reservations:

consciousness as well.

Domestic -1% YoY, International -6% YoY,

For international travel, passenger volumes at JAL and ANA, which have been

Overall Weak Impression (2 Aug 2026)

pursuing price-oriented strategies, declines YoY; however, low-cost carriers saw

Railways: JR Company O-bon Reservations:

confirmation of solid demand.

Relative to Peers, JR East's Reservation Trend

Travel to Okinawa was affected by typhoon activity, but even excluding these

Looks Strong (26 Jul 2026)

routes, airlines' domestic air travel did not fare as well as the JR companies in

terms of passenger volumes.

With consumers increasingly looking to control spending, we would expect

preferences for domestic over international travel and for low-cost carriers over

the full-service carriers.

JR East reported that usage at Maihama Station was -3% YoY. This is negative for

OLC as well, although we think the weather was the primary cause; we note that

these figures were just for the O-bon period.

On Aug 17, Japan Railway and airline companies announced data for the O-bon

holiday period (Aug 7–16). Along with dampened demand resulting from the

Kumamoto Earthquake, two typhoons made landfall and there were heavy rains

which caused service disruptions, so we think simple numerical comparisons vs last

year are of limited value.

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