Weekly Scheduled Capacity Tracker — VLRS Cuts 4Q

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Idea

August 17, 2026 03:22 PM GMT

Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure

| Latin America

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+

Jens Spiess, CFA

Equity Analyst

Weekly Scheduled Capacity

Tracker — VLRS Cuts 4Q

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research Associate

Gustavo Soares

Research Associate

Relative to last week, scheduled capacity most noticeably

changed for VLRS (4Q26: -185bps), GAP (4Q26/1Q27: -128bps/105bps), OMA (4Q26/1Q27: -124bps/-53bps) and ASUR (4Q26: 98bps).

Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure

Latin America

Industry View

In-Line

Key Takeaways

W/W, 3Q26 scheduled capacity remained basically stable for all companies

W/W, 4Q26 scheduled capacity decreased for VLRS (-185bps), GAP (-128bps),

OMA (-124bps) and ASUR (-98bps), while staying essentially stable for others

W/W, 1Q27 scheduled capacity decreased for GAP (-105bps) and OMA (-53bps),

while showing no material change for the rest of the companies

Our weekly capacity tracker monitors capacity for airports and airlines under our

coverage, using OAG flight schedule data. For Airports, we track capacity using

aircraft seats, which historically correlates with passenger traffic. For Airlines, we

track ASKs/ASMs.

Key capacity changes for this week according to OAG.

• OMA

° 3Q26 +5.2% y/y (vs. +5.2% last week and +5.5% the week of August

3rd);

° 4Q26 -0.4% y/y (vs. +0.9% last week and +1.0% the week of August

3rd);

° 1Q27 +9.3% y/y (vs. +9.8% last week and +9.3% the week of August

3rd).

• ASUR

° 3Q26 -2.0% y/y (vs. -1.9% last week and -1.8% the week of August

3rd);

° 4Q26 +0.3% y/y (vs. +1.2% last week and +0.9% the week of August

3rd);

° 1Q27 -3.1% y/y (vs. -2.8% last week and -3.1% the week of August 3rd).

• GAP

° 3Q26 -1.2% y/y (vs. -1.2% last week and -1.2% the week of August

3rd);

° 4Q26 -1.4% y/y (vs. -0.2% last week and -0.2% the week of August

3rd);

° 1Q27 +10.4% y/y (vs. +11.5% last week and +11.5% the week of August

3rd).

• COPA

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