PLDT Inc: Downgrade to Neutral on lack of ARPU reflation, subdued ROICs

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 August 2026

PLDT Inc

Downgrade to Neutral on lack of ARPU reflation,

subdued ROICs

▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

TEL.PS, TEL PM

Price (14 Aug 26):Php1,170.00

▼Price Target (Dec-27):Php1,050.00

Prior (Dec-27):Php1,800.00

We downgrade PLDT to Neutral as competitive pressures limit its ability to reflate

ARPUs, which is required to earn adequate returns on capital. Leverage could

remain elevated as FCFs do not cover dividends unless capex reduces. We lower

our FY27/28E EPS forecasts by 19%/28% and cut our Dec-27 PT to PHP1,050.

The valuations are undemanding at 2027E P/E of 8.6x and dividend yield of 8.0%

(both JPMe). This could support the share price. Asset monetization can help with

deleveraging.

ARPU reflation thesis has not materialized. Our thesis of ARPU reflation at

PLDT in a consolidating wireless market has not materialized. We calculate

wireless ARPU has remained stable at PHP135 in 2Q26. PLDT could have lost

wireless market share in the 1H26, which might further impact its ability to

inflate ARPUs. Fixed broadband also continues to face competitive pressures,

resulting in ARPU deflation.

Subdued return on capital. As per our calculations, PLDT’s ROIC has

declined from 8.5% in 2024 to ~8.0% in 2026E. This is likely below its cost of

capital. Capex has remained elevated, resulting in net debt (including lease

liabilities) increasing 17% between 2023 to 2026E. We calculate Net Debt/

EBITDA (including lease liabilities) remains elevated at ~3.0x in 2026E. At

low ROICs, the capital deployed is unlikely to be generating shareholder

returns. Low ROICs also result in lower valuations due to limited cash flow

generation. We calculate ROICs to remain subdued without ARPU reflation.

Addressing internal control issues could lower risk premiums.

Management’s release identifies internal control deficiencies. PLDT recently

revised 2023 and 2024 Net Income lower. PLDT plans to adjust certain line

items in its 2025 financial statements but states revisions will not be material

to NI. PLDT previously disclosed (in Dec-22) capex budget overruns of

PHP48bn over 2019-22. In our view, multiples could be at risk until

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