JD Logistics: Downgrade to Neutral as 2Q26 earnings quality and parentco strategy shift cap upside

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 August 2026

▼ Neutral

JD Logistics

Previous: Overweight

Downgrade to Neutral as 2Q26 earnings quality and

parentco strategy shift cap upside

Price (14 Aug 26): HK$12.23

2618.HK, 2618 HK

▼ Price Target (Jun-27): HK$14.00

We downgrade JDL to Neutral with a Jun-27 PT of HK$14 after 2Q26 results

that were solid on growth but underwhelming on margin quality and earnings

visibility. Revenue rose 24.3% Y/Y to Rmb64.1B, with non-IFRS profit up

2.2% Y/Y to Rmb2.64B, but margin diluted and below-the-line volatility

remains a concern. Management reiterated full-year revenue growth guidance

of 20-25% Y/Y and expects non-IFRS NP to grow at the low end of 25-30%

Y/Y, but flagged oil costs and weaker non-operating gains as real headwinds.

The briefing focused on continued ISC compounding, international expansion,

and AI/automation, but also acknowledged a tougher cost/mix backdrop. The

stock fell 13% post-results on 14 Aug, reflecting both sector de-risking and

JDL’s high beta to parentco sentiment. Despite the 13% slump (vs HSC -1%

and JD.com -10%), JDL has still outperformed YTD (+7% vs. HSC -9%). We

retain J&T and YMM as our top picks.

• 2Q26 results showed strong top-line growth but margin pressure and

cost volatility kept investors cautious. JDL delivered Rmb64.1B revenue

(+24.3% Y/Y) and Rmb2.43B non-IFRS operating profit (+11.6% Y/Y), but

non-IFRS profit margin fell 0.9ppts Y/Y to 4.1% and non-IFRS EBITDA

margin dropped 1.1ppts Y/Y to 10.0%. Cost of revenue rose 25.6% Y/Y,

reflecting both business mix and oil price impact. Management highlighted

healthy ISC and external customer momentum, but the market focused on

margin dilution and the lack of a clean inflection in earnings quality. We cut

our FY26-28 earnings forecasts by c6% and our Jun-27 PT is lowered to

HK$14, based on FY27E EPS of HK$1.62 and 8x P/E (prior: 9x).

Prior (Jun-27): HK$17.00

China

Infrastructure, Industrials &

Transport

Karen Li, CFA AC

(852) 2800-8589

Mufan Shi

(852) 2800-8502

Jenny Qiu, CFA

(852) 2800 8503

Neil Zhang

(852) 2800-8598

Beatrice Lam

(852) 2800-8738

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Style Exposure

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