JPM | Industrial Spec Sales - Sunday Machinations: Summer work

Research evidence excerpt

Specialist Sales

JPMORGAN

16 August 2026

JPM | Industrial Spec Sales - Sunday Machinations: Summer work

Sam Edmunds

The week has been a bit calmer - which came as a relief but there’s been plenty of drama and outsized stock moves. As expected,

rates have been dominating the market chatter - with the Iranian conflict very much on the back burner as the US mulls additional

‘Economic Fury’ to allow the stockpiles to be replenished inc ase more ‘Epic Fury’ is needed. The link between the conflict and

the rates market has been eased somewhat as the market takes the view that there is more oil flowing through the Straits of

Hormuz (and elsewhere) than had been feared - so the inflationary impact is likely dimished for now. The impact of calmer rates

has been different in the various regions, however, with Asia seeing a re-gross into the semis and into tech while in the US

there has been some momentum reversal with a bid for software - and in Europe also momentum reversal - with me

consistently calling it wrong in the mornings when I’ve seen the KOSPI powering ahead. The silver lining from all of this is that

the excitement has been in the least well-trafficked parts of the industrials segment. We’ve been busy in Chemicals, Light-Side

BMAT’s and Defence - with the knockout set of numbers from Vestas reminding us that the Cap Goods sector exists. In Autos

the activity and enthusiasm remains firmly curbed - although we hosted an Autos conference in NY this week - feedback is

interesting and I will come back to it.

We’ve been busiest in Chemicals this week and, as ever, there are various crosswinds blowing through the sector. Water

levels in the Rhine are at record low levels and a number of people have expressed surprise that we’ve not seen more of an

impact. A Force Majeur declared by Covestro on Tuesday focused minds to some degree, however, and the likelihood is that we

get negative commentary from the German chems manufacturers when we get to conference season in September. On a more

positive note, however, we got buy notes from Chetan on Umicore (HERE), Syensqo (HERE) and Clariant (HERE).

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