China banks Reality check on PBOC & NFRA 2Q26 data: positive read-across to SOE banks while JSBs lag

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 August 2026

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China banks

Reality check on PBOC & NFRA 2Q26 data: positive

read-across to SOE banks while JSBs lag

Takeaways from the PBOC and NFRA 2Q26 data are net positive. The data

suggest better-than-expected earnings for SOE banks, although divergence with

JSBs widened. Sector profit growth rebounded to 3% y/y in 2Q26 from -4% in

1Q26, with large banks delivering 5% growth, implying upside risk to JPMe (Table

2). This was likely supported by a 3bps q/q rebound in SOE banks’ NIMs. By

contrast, NFRA data show that JSBs’ profits contracted 8% y/y in 2Q26. As SPDB

and PAB reported profit growth of 8% and 4% y/y, respectively, this implies

downside risk for the rest of the JSB cohort. We also believe the PBOC’s special

discussion columns point to a lower probability of rate cuts in the near term,

considering upcoming rate hikes by overseas central banks, the use of relending

tools to reduce financing costs for targeted groups of borrowers, and that the shortend rate reform does not necessarily signal immediate easing. We reiterate our

preference for SOE banks over JSBs, with CCB and BOC our top picks.

Key message from NFRA and PBOC 2Q26 data

• Sector profits rose by 3% y/y in 2Q26, with positive read-across to SOE

banks but downside risks for JSBs. Commercial banks’ quarterly net profit

rose +3% y/y to RMB603bn in 2Q26, improving from a 4% decline in 1Q26.

SOE banks’ profit growth improved to 5% y/y in 2Q from -1% in 1Q26, while

JSBs’ profits declined 8% y/y after staying flat in the previous quarter. City

commercial banks’ and rural commercial banks’ profits rose +5% and +17%

y/y, respectively. We do note the discrepancy between statutory and financial

reporting. For example, NFRA data showed a 1% profit decline for large banks

in 1Q26, while listed large (SOE) banks reported 4% y/y profit growth (Figure

5-Figure 6).…