SMIC (0981) Strong beat in 2Q GM and 3Q margin guidance; depreciation ramp a constraint to long-term GM upside; Raise PT to HK$78

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 August 2026

SMIC (0981)

Strong beat in 2Q GM and 3Q margin guidance;

depreciation ramp a constraint to long-term GM

upside; Raise PT to HK$78

SMIC reported 2Q26 GM of 25.3%, beating JPMe and Bloomberg consensus by

3.6-4ppts. 3Q26 GM guidance of 26-28% also came in well above market

expectations of ~22%. The primary margin driver is price hikes amid tight

supply fueled by strong AI-adjacent demand. We believe this is a sustainable

driver for both revenue and margins in the coming quarters. However, further

margin upside could be capped by the rising depreciation burden, which is

expected to outpace revenue growth in 2026-27 (JPMe: depreciation up ~30%

/20% YoY in 2026/27 vs. rev growth 27%/16%). We maintain Neutral but raise

our Jun-27 PT to HK$78 (on unchanged ~2.8x P/B, avg FY27-28E BVPS). Key

upside risks would be a stronger and more broad-based price hike if consumer

demand recovers, or stronger leading edge growth driven by yield improvement.

• Margin beat on price hikes; 3Q GM guidance well above

expectations: SMIC reported a strong 2Q GM of 25.3%, 3.6-4ppts above

both the market and our estimates. The outperformance is mainly supported

by a healthy pricing environment, with 1Q price-hike negotiations now

reflected in financials. For 3Q, the company is guiding GM at 26-28%,

significantly above the prior market and our expectations of ~22%. The key

support remains robust pricing, as AI-peripheral demand continues to drive

tight S/D (UTR at ~95% in 3Q and expected to sustain in coming quarters).

We raise our FY26 GM forecast by ~2.8ppts to 24.4% (up 3.4ppts YoY).

• Strong demand mainly concentrated in AI peripherals: The 1H demand

strength was primarily driven by AI-peripheral products (AI-related revenue

up ~40% QoQ), such as power management ICs, which have created tight

imbalances in 8'' S/D and into 12''. SMIC continues to expand 12'' capacity

(JPMe: ~40k 12'' wfpm added in 2026), which should support revenue

growth as it gradually comes online, in our view, given AI-peripheral

demand appears to be a sustainable multi-year driver. On the consumer side,

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