Kweichow Moutai Co - A: 2Q26 Review: Headline Miss; Transition Year Sets Up Healthier Growth

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 August 2026

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory

of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.

Kweichow Moutai Co - A

Neutral

2Q26 Review: Headline Miss; Transition Year Sets Up

Healthier Growth

600519.SS, 600519 CH

Price (14 Aug 26):Rmb1,341.99

▼Price Target (Jun-27):Rmb1,400.00

Prior (Jun-27):Rmb1,420.00

Moutai’s 2Q26 results mark a pivotal transition, with headline misses (revenue

down 5% YoY, net profit down 7% YoY, see Figure 1) overshadowed by deeper

structural improvements. The market may be disappointed and react negatively to

the print. However, we think the logic behind the numbers matters more than the

miss itself: 2026 is a transition year focused on streamlining the product mix,

optimizing channels, and rebuilding pricing power. With the worst of the reform

pain likely behind us (distribution price trends in Figure 3), a healthier version of

Moutai is being built for the next cycle – near-term results may remain choppy, but

the medium-term setup is improving. That said, at 21x 2026E P/E and a Jun-27

price target of Rmb1,400 (4% upside), we maintain Neutral. A sustainable re-rating

requires further DTC traction and a recovery in household wealth. Near-term, we

see limited upside until expectations reset or valuations become more attractive.

Key catalysts: Mid-Autumn/National Day demand and wealth recovery.

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2Q by the numbers and how to read it. 2Q26 revenue declined 5.1% YoY and

net profit fell 7% YoY, which looks disappointing on the surface. Importantly,

Feitian was broadly flat, and the decline was concentrated in the “series wines”:

(-25% YoY) and overseas (-50% YoY), driven by tough bases and active destocking rather than a demand collapse. Contract liabilities fell about 60% as

the “channel reservoir” finally drained, meaning reported results should now

better reflect true sell-through rather than pipeline loading.…