North America Metals & Mining: Sunday Morning Metals: Copper Crunch Worsens; Earnings Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

16 August 2026

North America Metals & Mining

Sunday Morning Metals: Copper Crunch Worsens;

Earnings Takeaways

This weekly product is meant to be a one-stop shop for recent Metals & Mining-related

items by providing 1) upcoming events and data points in the week ahead; 2) key

headlines, JPM research, channel checks, and investor sentiment from the prior week;

3) company and sector price movements; 4) commodity dashboards; and 5) an

archive of our published M&M research.

Copper’s crunch worsened last week as LME stockpiles dropped for a 42nd day to

~205Kt (Figure 1), the longest drawdown since 2014, with nearly half of the metal in

the system already earmarked for withdrawal (link). The main September-delivery

contract jumped to a $260/t premium over October futures on Friday, the widest onemonth spread since a historic squeeze in 2021, which is being fueled by dwindling

LME inventories in anticipation of S232 tariffs on refined product and following the

DRC’s recent ban on concentrate exports (link). As of market close Friday, spot

copper was tracking at new all-time highs ($6.61/lb). Such levels have pressured the

China cathode premia to $90/t, down from July’s multi-year highs ($115/t) as Chinese

downstream buyers take a pause, while spot COMEX has lagged, driving the premia

below 2% (vs. 4% QTD avg.), the lowest since a brief dip in May’26 (Figure 2).

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Figure 2: China vs. COMEX Premia

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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Below we share summary points from last week’s earnings:

Key takeaways from B’s 2Q beat (link) include: 1) FY26 cost/production

guidance was reiterated; and 2) JV peer NEM consented to minority NA IPO

listing, including an $1.95B headline net cash payment for inclusion of

Fourmile, NEM’s Mike & Fiberline projects and other considerations (IPO

frictions/settling legacy dispute). Total net deal consideration was framed

closer to $4B. While Barrick likely took a haircut on NEM’s Fourmile stake,

we still view total project value as sound with potential upside from future

drilling/synergies.

Key takeaways from ENVX’s 2Q beat (link) include: 1) smartphone

…