EM Edge Data Watch: Inflation takes a summer break

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Economic Research

14 August 2026

EM Edge Data Watch

Inflation takes a summer break

July marks the return of disinflation in EM Edge, more pronounced than in

either EM or DM

Food and core items explain disinflation, not fuel dynamics

To watch: elections across Europe Edge, Panama canal issues, Mongolia

off-cyckle hike, positive Georgia ratings and Ukrainian politics

The overall policy framework and encouraging July inflationary dynamics

point to more disinflation ahead

EM, Economic and Policy Research

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

(44 20) 7742-2466

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Katherine Marney

(1-212) 834-2285

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Juan Goldin

The slowdown in inflation across EM Edge countries continued in July, even against

a backdrop of stickier price pressures in both developed and emerging markets.

Aggregate EM Edge inflation fell to 5.9%oya, down 60bp from June and roughly back

to levels last seen in 4Q last year. This marks a sharper deceleration than in EM exChina/Turkiye, where July inflation fell by only around 20bp, and contrasts with

developed markets, where inflation has been broadly flat (Figure 1). The picture is

even better when considering disinflation against the context of broadly improving

growth trends across EM Edge.

Several factors explain the recent disinflationary trend in EM Edge. EM Edge

economies had seen inflation rise more than in the broader EM space after the initial

energy shock that followed the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, because some

chose to fully or largely pass-through higher fuel costs into consumer prices. For some

this was because of limited fiscal space to cushion the impact, but others opted for such

an approach as part of a more flexible policy framework. Poor anchoring of inflation

expectations also played a role in some countries.

(57 601) 869 8746

BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

Mahmoud Harb

(65) 6882-1640

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

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